Deportivo Alaves vs Real Madrid prediction, lineups and betting tips
Real Madrid travel to face Deportivo Alaves this weekend as Carlo Ancelotti’s men look to extend their remarkable 38-game unbeaten streak in LaLiga. The contrast between the two sides couldn’t be starker – Madrid sitting comfortably at the top of the table while the hosts find themselves struggling in 17th position. Despite their commanding position, Madrid have been grinding out results rather than dominating opponents, with several recent draws suggesting potential vulnerability against a disciplined Alaves defense.
Match preview and head-to-head analysis
The historical matchup between these two sides heavily favors the visitors, with Real Madrid claiming 10 victories from 16 encounters compared to Alaves’ modest tally of just 2 wins, with 4 draws completing the record. Last season produced contrasting results – a 2-2 draw when Madrid visited Mendizorroza before Ancelotti’s men delivered a commanding 5-1 victory in the reverse fixture.
When examining the 34 matches played at Alaves’ home ground, the balance shifts slightly with the hosts winning 11 times against Madrid’s 15 victories. Interestingly, the most common scoreline when Madrid visit Vitoria-Gasteiz is 1-1, a result that has occurred five times. These statistics gain significance when considering Alaves’ recent defensive solidity – nine of their last ten matches have featured fewer than 2.5 goals, while all six fixtures in 2025 have seen two goals or fewer.
While Madrid boast the longest unbeaten streak in LaLiga, their momentum has been checked by draws against Mallorca and Las Palmas. In contrast, Alaves have managed just four wins from 13 matches this season, with their home form particularly concerning – three losses from their last five games at Mendizorroza suggests potential vulnerability against Madrid’s attacking talent.
Team news and predicted lineups
Real Madrid squad update
Ancelotti faces significant selection headaches with an extensive injury list hampering his options. Jude Bellingham remains doubtful with a shoulder injury despite scoring the winner against Valencia, while long-term absentees include Daniel Carvajal, David Alaba, and Eduardo Camavinga. Eder Militao, Brahim Diaz and Dani Ceballos complete the treatment room occupants.
Madrid’s predicted 4-3-3 formation will likely feature Thibaut Courtois between the posts, with a defensive line of Lucas Vazquez, Antonio Rudiger, Militao (if fit) and Ferland Mendy. The midfield trio should comprise Aurelien Tchouameni, Federico Valverde and potentially Arda Guler if Bellingham misses out. The formidable front three of Rodrygo, Kylian Mbappe and Vinicius Junior remains Madrid’s greatest threat.
Deportivo Alaves team status
The hosts receive a defensive boost with Nahuel Tenaglia returning from suspension, though Hugo Novoa and Carlos Benavidez remain sidelined. Luis Garcia’s side will likely adopt their familiar 4-2-3-1 system with Sivera in goal behind a back four of Tenaglia, Abqar, Sedlar (or Pica) and Sanchez.
| Team | Recent Form | Current Position |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | W-W-W-D-W | 1st |
| Deportivo Alaves | L-W-W-L-L | 17th |
Key players to watch
While Madrid possesses an embarrassment of attacking riches, Kylian Mbappe remains the headline attraction despite struggling to find consistent form since his summer arrival. The Frenchman has managed 13 goals with 3 assists across 23 appearances – respectable figures that nevertheless fall short of the stratospheric expectations that accompanied his signing.
Vinicius Junior provides explosive pace on the left flank, having opened his account against Las Palmas, while Bellingham continues his impressive goal contribution with 6 strikes and 3 assists in his last 8 matches. For the hosts, Hugo Duro leads the attack with 4 goals and 1 assist from 14 outings, supported by match-winner Carlos Vicente and captain Ander Guevara orchestrating from midfield.
Tactical analysis and match prediction
Alaves’ approach will almost certainly prioritize defensive solidarity given their recent low-scoring matches. Their strategy will focus on frustrating Madrid’s creative stars Valverde and Tchouameni while looking to spring counterattacks through their forward options. Ancelotti’s men must demonstrate patience and precision to break down the hosts’ disciplined defensive structure.
- Real Madrid’s possession-based approach will face stern resistance from a compact Alaves defensive unit
- Alaves will look to target Madrid’s potentially makeshift defense with quick transitions and set-pieces
The most likely outcome appears to be a hard-fought Madrid victory, with a probable scoreline of 2-0 reflecting their superior quality eventually telling against stubborn opposition. Expect Mbappe and Rodrygo to be the difference-makers, though Alaves’ defensive resilience should prevent a high-scoring affair.
Betting tips and viewing information
Recommended bets
The betting markets heavily favor a Madrid win at odds of 1.32-1.44, reflecting their superior quality and form. However, better value may lie in backing under 2.5 goals at 1.79 given Alaves’ recent defensive record. The “both teams to score – No” option at 1.86 also merits consideration based on the hosts’ goal-scoring struggles against elite opposition.
| Betting Option | Odds | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid Win | 1.32-1.44 | Strong |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 1.79 | Medium |
| Both Teams to Score – No | 1.86 | Medium |
Match details and broadcast information
- Venue: Estadio Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz, Spain
- Broadcast options: GXR World (India), Premier Sports and ITV (UK), ESPN+ (USA), SuperSport (Nigeria)
